Comments for Silberzahn & Jones

Comment on Analysis Paralysis: the Intelligence-Policy Divide, Revisited by T. Greer

T. Greer — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 05:48:45 +0000

I am reminded of the distinction Ashwin Parameswaran noted over at his blog:

"Crucial question for Western Philosophy: “What is the truth?” i.e. how to look before you leap. Crucial question for Chinese Philosophy: “Where is the Way?” i.e. how to leap without looking. via A.C. Graham on page 3 of the ‘Disputers of the Tao’ who notes that the crucial question for [Chinese philosophers] is not the Western philosopher’s ‘What is the truth?’ but ‘Where is the Way?’

It seems Kendall might have had some ChineseThink in him.

Comment on Analysis Paralysis: the Intelligence-Policy Divide, Revisited by Mike Anders

Mike Anders — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 19:45:06 +0000

Once you step over the line into advocacy, you stop producing intelligence and start producing propaganda.

Comment on Analysis Paralysis: the Intelligence-Policy Divide, Revisited by Avner Barnea

Avner Barnea — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 22:51:21 +0000

Dear Phillipe, Thanks for raising this important issue of the problematic relationship between intelligence analysts and policy makers. Unfortunately, the trend in the last 20 years or so in western countries, not only the US, is for closer relationship contrary to what Sherman Kent advocated. I’m aware how complicated is the role of intelligence analysts and based on twenty five tears of strategic intelligence experience and 10 more years in the academia and in business, when I look into this matter from the outside, I much preferred the “old” situation that went on for many years. One of my best teachers on intelligence, the late head of the Israeli military intelligence, General and Professor Yehoshfat Harkabi, was warning against the new trend of closer relationship, but most intelligence experts are ignoring this important matter and let this trend go on. I believe close relationship is damaging intelligence analysis deeply. Both in strategic and business intelligence. Forecasting is another matter, which needs further discussion.

Comment on Analysis Paralysis: the Intelligence-Policy Divide, Revisited by Johel Davila

Johel Davila — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 22:26:36 +0000

I agree in general with the arguments made but I would highlight, and maybe I’m extrapolating too much from what was said above, that some level of forecasting / prediction is necessary to help with scenario / contigency planning. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

Also, diversity of viewpoints is key. If the analysis will contain advocacy then best to listen to more than one argument, however disinclined one might be to do so. Similar to the opinion pages of some periodicals.

Would you agree?

Comment on We have met the enemy and he is, er, forecasting by Analysis Paralysis: the Intelligence-Policy Divide, Revisited | Silberzahn & Jones

Thu, 07 Mar 2013 12:00:27 +0000

[...] Barnett’s note can be found here, it is worth reading. The Kent-Kendall debate is described in Jack Davis’ excellent article available here. On forecasting, see our article “We have met the enemy and he is, er, forecasting.” [...]

Comment on Crafting Non Predictive Strategy, Part III: Acknowledge the Nature of the Problem by Big Data and Corporate Governance

Big Data and Corporate Governance — Tue, 05 Mar 2013 10:13:03 +0000

[...] quote Silberzahn and Jones “Despite formidable developments in business strategy over the last fifty years, organizations [...]

Comment on Crafting Non-Predictive Strategy, Part II: Start with who you are by Philippe Silberzahn

Philippe Silberzahn — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 19:53:22 +0000

Thank you! Your article is excellent!

Comment on Crafting Non-Predictive Strategy, Part II: Start with who you are by T. Greer

T. Greer — Thu, 28 Feb 2013 22:51:04 +0000

Quoted from you extensively here: Strategy is Who You Are [...]The following discussion, taken from the business strategy blog Silberzahn and Jones, is a terrific example of the insight business literature can offer those who seek to make sense of international affairs[...]

Comment on Crafting Non-Predictive Strategy, Part II: Start with who you are by T. Greer

T. Greer — Thu, 28 Feb 2013 22:50:37 +0000

Quoted from you extensively here: Strategy is Who You Are T. Greer. The Scholar's Stage. 28 Feb 2013. [...]The following discussion, taken from the business strategy blog Silberzahn and Jones, is a terrific example of the insight business literature can offer those who seek to make sense of international affairs[...]

Comment on Start with Geostrategy, or call it Tactics by hedge fund trading x

hedge fund trading x — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 00:08:12 +0000

Really enjoyed this blog post.Really thank you!
Cool.