Milo and I organize a workshop on Tuesday, May 29 on ACH (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses). ACH is a tool originally developed by Richards Heuer at the CIA to analyze complex and uncertain situations. It is widely used in intelligence and international politics, but Milo and I think it applies equally well to business for strategic decision making. ACH [...]
Posts Tagged ‘Intelligence Analysis’
Workshop on ACH – Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Posted in Our work featured, Theory, tagged analysis of competing hypotheses, intelligence, Intelligence Analysis on May 28, 2012 | Leave a Comment »
Geopolitics and Investing: A Reading List
Posted in Methodology & Tools, Theory, tagged analysis, asset allocation, CIA, demography, economics, energy, event trading, forecasting, Geopolitics, Geostrategy, Graham T. Allison, Hedge funds, Intelligence Analysis, investing, Luttwak, Richard Neustadt, Use of history on May 1, 2012 | 4 Comments »
As I explain to my students at IE, the most any business school can hope to do is move you from unconscious ignorance to conscious ignorance of a subject. In other words, a course can lay a firm foundation in a subject, and then provide a jumping off point for future self-study. After my MIAF course “Geopolitics [...]
“Facts” Everybody Knows – Statistical Cautions about the BRICs (in honor of Igor Birman)
Posted in Methodology & Tools, Theory, tagged BRICs, Cassandras, China, CIA, Emerging markets, Geopolitics, Igor Birman, Intelligence Analysis, PPP, statistics, urbanization, USSR on April 8, 2011 | 8 Comments »
In business and finance, statistics and quantitative comparisons are daily companions. Sometimes, however, key statistics can become too familiar, and reify, i.e. harden into “facts” that everybody knows. In so doing, they play a large part in strategic surprises. In the late 1980s, for example, the US Intelligence Community “knew” that Soviet GDP was $2.5 trillion, [...]
How to Think like an Intelligence Analyst
Posted in Methodology & Tools, tagged CIA, Cuban Missile Crisis, Ernest R May, Geopolitics, Geostrategy, Graham T. Allison, Hedge funds, Integrated Strategy, intelligence, Intelligence Analysis, Morgan D. Jones, non-predictive strategy, Philip D. Zelikow, Richard E Neustadt, strategy, Timothy Walton on April 6, 2011 | 10 Comments »
To follow up on Philippe’s post about Thinking in Time: at IE I teach a course called “Geopolitics” to Masters in Advanced Finance students, and “The Multinational Firm and Geostrategy” to Masters in Management students. Students in those classes sometimes ask me to recommend books to help them “think like an intelligence analyst” and apply [...]
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