In a previous article, we discussed how, when facing an uncertain situation, a deep understanding of the present beats prediction about the future. One tool that Milo and I developed for strategists to think in detail about the present – in other words to answer the pretty basic strategic question “What is going on?” – is a refinement of a framework developed by the historian Ernest May and political scientist Richard Neustadt. We call it the “KPUU framework”. It demands strategists answer and drive towards discussion (and perhaps agreement about) four simple questions about a situation.
Our new book:
Keywords
23andMe analysis of competing hypotheses black swan China CIA clayton christensen competitive intelligence crafting strategy decision making demography disruption Ernest R May Forbes Forecast forecasting Geopolitics Geostrategy Graham T. Allison Hedge funds Integrated Strategy intelligence Intelligence Analysis Kodak Nassim taleb non-linearity non-predictive strategy nonlinear systems non market forces organizational decline Peter F. Drucker prediction Richard E Neustadt Richard Neustadt Social construction strategic autism strategic surprise strategy strategy making Tactics technology Tetlock uncertainty Use of analogs Use of history USSRFollow us on Twitter
- Cuban missile crisis showed that having a lot of data is of no help if hypotheses are wrong to start with onforb.es/RP1NlO 16 hours ago
- RT @nntaleb: Someone asked me: "How can we improve the risk management profession". Answer: "By leaving it". 17 hours ago
- Check out our brand new site for the book: fb.me/1Z9wPkptQ 20 hours ago
- Constructing Cassandra available for pre-order on Amazon wp.me/p3uEeR-k 1 day ago
- Is Your Company Heading For a Cuban Missile Crisis? Steps to Make Sure Big Data is Working For You, Not Against You onforb.es/RP1NlO 1 day ago
- Roberta Wohlstetter has shown long ago that having tons of data didn't help anticipating surprises #bigdata #ConstructingCassandra 2 days ago
- Pre-order our book on Amazon: Constructing Cassandra: Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947-2001 amazon.com/dp/0804785805 2 days ago
- A good example of getting the idea of black swan totally wrong: blogs.wsj.com/cio/2013/05/17… fb.me/2MiPJluH2 2 days ago
Archives
Silberzahn Jones




