Why Intelligence Fails – Video Available

Last month Milo Jones spoke about the core ideas of Constructing Cassandra at the International Spy Museum in Washington, DC, under the heading “Why Intelligence Fails”.

He was joined by Dr. Mark Lowenthal, the former Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis and Production and former Vice Chairman for Evaluation on the National Intelligence Council (also distinguished for being a past winner of the US game show Jeopardy “Tournament of Champions”).

A video of the event is available here.  If you like the video, please “Like it” on YouTube.

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Constructing Cassandra in paperback

If you were waiting for the paperback edition of Constructing Cassandra to order your copy, now’s your chance:  Amazon is accepting pre-orders for $26.96 here.

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Review in the Army War College journal Parameters

Capture 1Constructing Cassandra was reviewed in the the Winter 2013-14 issue of Parameters, the official journal of the US Army War College.

The review concludes “Jones and Silberzahn have crafted an insightful masterpiece to frame the true nature of the CIA. The depth to which their arguments are presented clearly shows the dangers a tight knit intelligence society may have when analyzing intelligence reports. Their purpose is not to craft lofty goals the agency will never reach but rather to examine the reasons why the agency failed in the past. I recommend this book to anyone with a passion in understanding the analytical framework of the CIA and who seeks to comprehend the theoretical approach, through the uses of organizational theory, in uncovering its internal mysteries.”

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Our article in Revue Défense Nationale

If you read French, a summary of the main ideas in Constructing Cassandra has just appeared in Revue Défense Nationale (issue 767).   See the article “Incertitude et surprise stratégique : les leçons des échecs de la CIA” beginning on page 114.

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Meeting of the Oxford University Strategic Studies Group

Tonight at 8:30 PM, Milo will lead a discussion about strategic surprise and Constructing Cassandra at a meeting of the Oxford University Strategic Studies Group.  The meeting will be in the Old Library of All Souls College, and all discussions will be conducted under Chatham House rules.

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The MOOC Disruption is Only Beginning. What I Learned Creating my First MOOC

Milo and I have already discussed sources of disruption in this blog (see for instance Milo’s Start with Geostrategy, or call it Tactics), and we’ve particularly discussed the role of technology as a  source of disruption. But it is one thing is to describe disruption, and another to experience it.  In that context, I created and ran a MOOC (an online course) on entrepreneurship last November, and thought I’d share the results of this effort for two reasons. First, because MOOCs are poised to disrupt education and second, because there’s been some controversy about them. So let’s go through my experience and see what it tells us.

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New video: Did the CIA fail to anticipate the fall of the USSR?

In this video about Constructing Cassandra, we explain how the CIA failed to anticipate the fall of the USSR. Watch it here on YouTube.