Meet Milo Jones at the upcoming Brasidas & GeopoliticalAlpha (GpA) Strategic investment Seminar on Jan 26th

Brasidas & GeopoliticalAlpha (GpA) will hold the first of their 2016 Strategic Seminar Series on the theme “Iran – spotting and vetting opportunities” on January 26th in Zurich. Milo Jones will talk about how to use intelligence analysis tools and concepts to evaluate new strategic investment opportunities in Iran. Further information is available here.

The Euromoney Qatar Conference 2015

Event_850_359px_Qatar_v1On Wednesday, December 9, Milo is speaking on the panel “Qatar’s Strategy in a Changing World” at the Euromoney Qatar conference.   The panel will address Qatar’s place among the shifting geopolitics of the Persian Gulf region, and the financial risks and opportunities generated by recent global trends.   In addition to his panel, conference speakers includes senior figures from the Qatari financial and political establishment and a keynote address by Sir John Scarlett, Former Chief​ of MI6.

For details of the event or if you would like to attend Milo’s panel, please contact him directly (or of course contact Euromoney directly to attend the Conference as a whole).

Our new Forbes piece: Three Practical Reasons To Insist On Forecasts Without Numbers

Our new Forbes piece is in praise of poets and gives you three practical reasons to insist on, yes, qualitative forecasting when considering the future. Read it here.

Our new Forbes piece: The Dangers Of Too Much Reason, Or Homo Economicus Meets The Real World

Our latest post on Forbes is a reflection on the limits of explaining state behavior with reason and rationality. An obsession with finding rational explanations – however far-fetched – for a state’s actions may lead us to ignore important emotional motivations, and result in miscalculation or outright surprise. Read our piece here.

 

Our new Forbes piece: Chess, Centaurs and Your Future as an Investor in An Age of Machine Intelligence

Our new Forbes article is a reflection on the impact of artificial intelligence and machine reading on investing. Machine reading and artificial intelligence is becoming a fact of life in finance. As an investor, will you be a victim or will you take advantage of it? The article is available here.

 

Our new Forbes piece: Are You Near Your Altamont Moment? How Catastrophic Surprises Transform Business Identities

Our latest post on Forbes is a reflection on the role of catastrophic events in the transformation of people and organizations’ identities, based on the example of the ill-fated Rolling Stones’ Altamont festival in 1969. It is available here.

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Constructing Cassandra in Time magazine

President Bush Tours CIA HeadquartersYesterday the article “The CIA’s Latest Mission: Improving Diversity” appeared in Time magazine.  I was interviewed for the story, so it is gratifying to see that Constructing Cassandra is cited.   Nevertheless, it is a pity that Maya Rhodan, the author of the Time piece, did not explore more fully the link between diversity and effective analysis.

As I stressed to Ms Rhodan and as our book documents, diversity is a practical, not merely a moral issue for intelligence agencies (and for any organization charged with wide-ranging risk analysis).  Racial, ethnic, religious and gender diversity is far from a perfect proxy for cognitive diversity, but homogeneity in these categories assuredly contributes to the “natural selection of accidents” that produces intelligence failures.