Meet us next week at SCIP in Orlando to talk about intelligence failure

Posted on May 3, 2013 by | Leave a comment

We will be presenting our upcoming book, “Constructing Cassandra: Reframing intelligence failure at the CIA, 1947-2001″ at the 28th Annual Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP) International Conference & Exhibition in Orlando (FL), USA. The conference runs from May 6th to 9th.

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Our new Forbes piece: Play it Like Steve Jobs-Three Questions for Business Leaders to Ask When Surprise Hits

Posted on April 11, 2013 by | Leave a comment

Our latest post on Forbes proposes a simple framework for leaders to apply when confronted with a strategic surprise-That 3am call… In short, don’t rush into action, no matter how urgent things seem to be! Read the post here.

Previous Forbes pieces:

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Analysis Paralysis: the Intelligence-Policy Divide, Revisited

Posted on March 7, 2013 by | 4 Comments

The National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030 was released earlier this year (you can find it here).  In that context, it is worth mentioning an important point that Wikistrat‘s Thomas P.M. Barnett made earlier about previous NIC’s forecasts in his 2005 book, The Pentagon’s New Map.  Barnett’s key point in the book for our purposes is that the US Intelligence Community believes that it must only do analysis, and never engage in “advocacy” of any particular policy.  This epistemologically naive point of departure poses a number of problems.

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Personal Genetic Testing Companies – an Update

Posted on February 4, 2013 by | Leave a comment

Last week, I again attended VALUEx.   If you’re a Value Investor, this is no more interesting use of your time – it is an extraordinary gathering of intelligent, talented and fun people.

Like me, many people at VALUEx avoid investing in technology firms.  On the other hand, many participants know that it’s important to follow the evolution of what I call the “3 GRAIN” technologies (3D printing, Genetics, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Information Technology, and Nanotechnology).  Each of the 3 GRAIN general purpose technologies will have an increasing impact on the creation of value in the years ahead.   Moreover, how they will combine to produce social changes is something that Philippe and I think about a lot.
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Our new Forbes piece: Lady Gaga World President by 2030? Why the forecasters so often get it wrong

Posted on January 17, 2013 by | Leave a comment

Our latest post on Forbes is a reflection on the limits of forecasting after the publication of the National intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030 report is available here. In short, don’t predict, construct.

Previous Forbes pieces:

 

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Forecasting World Events – Call for Participants

Posted on January 8, 2013 by | Leave a comment
We may be looking for you.

We may be looking for you.

If you’re reading this blog, you’re probably the sort of person that the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) is looking for:   IARPA is now looking for new participants for its online research study, Forecasting World Events.

The Forecasting World Events study involves making predictions about current issues that you select from various categories, like international relations, global politics, economics, business, and other areas.  If you’d like to try to participate, click HERE.

Once you sign up at the website, they will send you a background questionnaire.   After you complete the questionnaire, they will send you an e-mail to let you know if you have been selected.  The initial questionnaire only takes about 20 minutes, and the prediction study itself is really interesting and quite quick to do every few weeks.

PS To understand the methodological background of the study, we recommend Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment:  How Good Is It? How Can We Know.

PPS If you enjoyed this post, why not subscribe to our blog?  Thanks.

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The Four Drivers of Geostrategy : 1) Demographic change

Posted on January 2, 2013 by | 5 Comments

In a previous post, Milo argued that strategic thinking should begin at the level of Geostrategy (See Start with Geostrategy or call it tactics). Geostrategy looks at how geopolitical factors inform, constrain, and affect business over the long term.  For convenience, you can place these geopolitical drivers into four categories that interact, evolve and change over time:  Demographics, Geography, Technology, and Culture.  It is “climate change” at the level of these geopolitical drivers– and especially the interaction among them – that create the economic and political “weather” of your firm.  It is at their level that true strategy begins.   In this post, we’ll look at the first one, Demographics.

The Foundations of Lasting Strategy

The Foundations of Lasting Strategy

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