Category Archives: Event

Geopolitics in Japan and Harvard Business Review, Korea

On March 21, Milo will offer an IE Masterclass on “Geopolitics for Business” in Tokyo.  The following day, he will be speaking on the same topic at Nissan’s Global Headquarters  and in a Nikkei Open Seminar.  Please contact him if you would like to attend one of these sessions.

Special Lecture with Harvard Business Review Korea, 24 March, 2016

Special Lecture with Harvard Business Review Korea, 24 March, 2016

In Seoul on March 24, Milo will offer a session on the promise and pitfalls of Big Data at Ernst & Young.   That session will be followed in the evening by a special, two-part Masterclass for Harvard Business Review Korea (Donga Business Review) entitled “Intelligence Tools for the Business Professional”.   In this session, Milo will explore how businesses  can use analytic tools drawn from the Intelligence Community to understand incidents like the de facto 2010 Chinese embargo on the export of rare earth elements.  Please note that this event hosted by DBR on a fee basis; if you are interested in attending, please register here.

The content of all of these sessions will be covered in much greater depth in Madrid in June, when Milo is co-teaching the three-day IE Executive Education course “Unconventional Edges in Finance: Tools from Intelligence Agencies, Behavioral Finance, and Scenario Strategy.”  Details about the course and how to register for it can be found here.

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Meet Milo Jones at the upcoming Brasidas & GeopoliticalAlpha (GpA) Strategic investment Seminar on Jan 26th

Brasidas & GeopoliticalAlpha (GpA) will hold the first of their 2016 Strategic Seminar Series on the theme “Iran – spotting and vetting opportunities” on January 26th in Zurich. Milo Jones will talk about how to use intelligence analysis tools and concepts to evaluate new strategic investment opportunities in Iran. Further information is available here.

The Euromoney Qatar Conference 2015

Event_850_359px_Qatar_v1On Wednesday, December 9, Milo is speaking on the panel “Qatar’s Strategy in a Changing World” at the Euromoney Qatar conference.   The panel will address Qatar’s place among the shifting geopolitics of the Persian Gulf region, and the financial risks and opportunities generated by recent global trends.   In addition to his panel, conference speakers includes senior figures from the Qatari financial and political establishment and a keynote address by Sir John Scarlett, Former Chief​ of MI6.

For details of the event or if you would like to attend Milo’s panel, please contact him directly (or of course contact Euromoney directly to attend the Conference as a whole).

Why Intelligence Fails – Video Available

Last month Milo Jones spoke about the core ideas of Constructing Cassandra at the International Spy Museum in Washington, DC, under the heading “Why Intelligence Fails”.

He was joined by Dr. Mark Lowenthal, the former Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis and Production and former Vice Chairman for Evaluation on the National Intelligence Council (also distinguished for being a past winner of the US game show Jeopardy “Tournament of Champions”).

A video of the event is available here.  If you like the video, please “Like it” on YouTube.

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Forecasting World Events – Call for Participants

We may be looking for you.

We may be looking for you.

If you’re reading this blog, you’re probably the sort of person that the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) is looking for:   IARPA is now looking for new participants for its online research study, Forecasting World Events.

The Forecasting World Events study involves making predictions about current issues that you select from various categories, like international relations, global politics, economics, business, and other areas.  If you’d like to try to participate, click HERE.

Once you sign up at the website, they will send you a background questionnaire.   After you complete the questionnaire, they will send you an e-mail to let you know if you have been selected.  The initial questionnaire only takes about 20 minutes, and the prediction study itself is really interesting and quite quick to do every few weeks.

PS To understand the methodological background of the study, we recommend Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment:  How Good Is It? How Can We Know.

PPS If you enjoyed this post, why not subscribe to our blog?  Thanks.

I will be a host on the Financial Time’s “Ask the Expert: Entrepreneurship 2012” today at 2:00PM GMT

I will be a host on the Financial Time’s “Ask the Expert: Entrepreneurship 2012” today at 2:00PM GMT.

If you want to know what business can learn from entrepreneurs in the management of uncertainty, post your question now!

More info on the FT’s Web site here.

Conference on strategic surprises at the CIA

On Wednesday, January 18th, I will be giving a conference on the topic of strategic surprise at EMLYON Business School, as part of the series “The Art of Management”.  In this context, a strategic surprise is defined as the sudden realization by an organization that it has operated on the basis of an erroneous threat assessment resulting in an inability to anticipate a serious threat to its vital interests.

While the majority of the research explains strategic surprises (such as September 11) with psychological, bureaucratic or cybernetic (absence of detection of weak signals for example) models, an in-depth research on more than 50 years of the CIA’s history shows that the origin of strategic surprises often lies with the characteristics of identity and culture of the organization.  This research was started by Milo a few years ago, and we now pursue it together.  We show how the CIA was the victim of several strategic surprises, and that these surprises are largely explained by the social construction of the organization: whom it recruits, how it trains agents and analysts, how it develops its culture, etc.  In essence, what an organization is surprised by depends on its identity. After presenting the finding about the CIA, we will discuss what lessons can be drawn from these results for businesses, particularly in the field of innovation and strategy.  We will make the case that here too, the difficulties are often cultural, and results can be improved using this mode of analysis.

If you are interested in the conference, please contact us.