Our latest post on Forbes piece discusses why Big Data will not make you smarter and potentially can be dangerous. Read it here.
Our book:
-
Keywords
23andMe analysis of competing hypotheses artificial intelligence BCG Matrix Betts Big data black swan Cassandras China CIA clayton christensen competitive intelligence Constructing cassandra crafting strategy Cuban Missile Crisis culture decision making demography disruption diversity economics energy entrepreneurship Ernest R May Forbes Forecast forecasting geopolitical alpha Geopolitics Geostrategy Global Trends 2030 Graham T. Allison grand strategy Hedge funds identity Integrated Strategy intelligence Intelligence Analysis Intelligence failure investing Kodak leadership Nassim taleb National Intelligence Council non-linearity non-market strategy non-predictive strategy nonlinear systems non market forces organizational decline Osama bin Laden Peter F. Drucker Porter's Five Forces prediction Richard E Neustadt Richard Neustadt Risk Sam Walton scenario planning Sherman Kent Social construction strategic autism strategic surprise strategy strategy making surprise Tactics technology Tetlock uncertainty Use of analogs Use of history USSR Value Chain Analysis videoFollow us on Twitter
- Our Constructing Cassandra book is cited in new BBC World article silberzahnjones.com/2019/09/10/our… https://t.co/TTiieOxaWC 6 months ago
- fb.me/BR54jGwf 2 years ago
- Approche par le design thinking: démocratisation, team building, transdisciplinarité - Céline Girault, Groupe Hutchinson 2 years ago
- Trying to make sense of North Korea? Try chapter three in this classic from 1996. fb.me/90r5HXWO9 2 years ago
- Milo Jone’s TEDx talk on artificial intelligence and leadership youtube.com/watch?v=DqkFCI… silberzahnjones.com/2017/08/23/mil… 2 years ago
- Watch Milo's TEDx video on artificial intelligence and leadership youtube.com/watch?v=DqkFCI… fb.me/7vAbCGj0A 2 years ago
- We are cited in: 3 lessons for collaboration computerworld.com/article/321610… via @computerworld 2 years ago
- The "Hidden Hand" seems to be replacing the "Invisible Hand" among business students. Any suggested articles to... fb.me/7SpEVVnSE 2 years ago
Archives
Silberzahn Jones
It is an interesting article. As to the problems facing analysts – I’m not a great believer that they can be changed. Many of their problems are cognitive and thus biased. I think that the emphasize has to be shifted on improving dramatically the team work of the analysts and avoid group think. With the advanced capabilities of IT, this challenge is practical.
Hello Avner – Thanks for your comment. We indeed argue in our book that many problems are cognitive, but that is not the only explanation. More generally, the issue is cultural, in the epidemiological assumptions analysts hold, often unconsciously. We argue for making these assumptions explicit and thus uncover why some biases happen and not others. Unless this cultural issue is tackled, surprises will continue to happen.
Hello Philippe, I agree with your comment but I’m trying to take the problem of the standard of quality by analysts forward although I’m aware it is dangerous to make generalizations. Your new book is in my reading list.