Category Archives: Our work featured

UK Parliamentary Committee echos our findings on diversity

Readers of Constructing Cassandra will remember that our first recommendation for improving intelligence analysis at the Agency was, “Enforce diversity at the CIA for practical, not moral, reasons. We find that the homogeneity of the CIA personnel severely hobbles its central mission” (page 15).

While diversity in terms of gender, race, religion, etc. is not a perfect proxy for cognitive diversity, it certainly plays a role in the sociology of knowledge and the natural selection of accidents that are central to strategic surprises.

It is gratifying, therefore, that  in a report released yesterday, a UK parliamentary committee on intelligence and security urged MI5, MI6 and GCHQ to increase the diversity of their workforce, especially in terms of gender.

You read it here first

You read it here first

Specifically, the report notes, “it is the variety of ideas, the competition, the challenge, the lack of ‘group think’, and the interesting collaborations, that a diverse workforce brings to an organisation. If organisations are only recruiting and promoting one sort of person, then they are only going to get one sort of solution to a problem. Even with some of the brightest and the best, if they are cut from the same cultural cloth, this will inevitably result in a narrower perspective.”

We couldn’t have said it better ourselves!

You can read more about the committee’s recommendations in yesterday’s TelegraphGuardian and on the BBC.

Geopolitics: Shortcuts For Spotting Good And Bad Analysis

If you enjoyed the piece in Forbes earlier in the week about the similarities between poor geopolitical analysis and psychic cold-reading, an expanded version, “Geopolitics: Shortcuts For Spotting Good And Bad Analysis” is now available on Seeking Alpha.

A Slipshod Analysts Best Friend.

A Slipshod Analysts Best Friend.

Geopolitics, Investing, and the Little Book of Psychic Cold Reading

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Milo’s latest advice for investors and business people trying to come to grips with geopolitics is now available on Forbes.com.  It’s called “Geopolitics, Investing and the Little Book of Psychic Cold Reading”.

Geopolitical Alpha – What It Is, And Why You Need It

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Milo has just published the first of a series of articles about Geopolitics and investing on the financial news site Seeking Alpha.  It’s entitled “Geopolitical Alpha – What It Is, And Why You Need It”.

If you want to jump ahead in the series (and explore some of topics the Seeking Alpha series will cover in more depth), see our previous posts, especially Geopolitics and Investing: A Reading List and How to Think like an Intelligence Analyst.

Comments and questions are most welcome either here or on the Seeking Alpha site.

 

 

Why Intelligence Fails – Video Available

Last month Milo Jones spoke about the core ideas of Constructing Cassandra at the International Spy Museum in Washington, DC, under the heading “Why Intelligence Fails”.

He was joined by Dr. Mark Lowenthal, the former Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis and Production and former Vice Chairman for Evaluation on the National Intelligence Council (also distinguished for being a past winner of the US game show Jeopardy “Tournament of Champions”).

A video of the event is available here.  If you like the video, please “Like it” on YouTube.

Capture

 

Review in the Army War College journal Parameters

Capture 1Constructing Cassandra was reviewed in the the Winter 2013-14 issue of Parameters, the official journal of the US Army War College.

The review concludes “Jones and Silberzahn have crafted an insightful masterpiece to frame the true nature of the CIA. The depth to which their arguments are presented clearly shows the dangers a tight knit intelligence society may have when analyzing intelligence reports. Their purpose is not to craft lofty goals the agency will never reach but rather to examine the reasons why the agency failed in the past. I recommend this book to anyone with a passion in understanding the analytical framework of the CIA and who seeks to comprehend the theoretical approach, through the uses of organizational theory, in uncovering its internal mysteries.”

Parameters

 

Our article in Revue Défense Nationale

If you read French, a summary of the main ideas in Constructing Cassandra has just appeared in Revue Défense Nationale (issue 767).   See the article “Incertitude et surprise stratégique : les leçons des échecs de la CIA” beginning on page 114.

Revue Defense Nationale issue 767

New video: Did the CIA fail to anticipate the fall of the USSR?

In this video about Constructing Cassandra, we explain how the CIA failed to anticipate the fall of the USSR. Watch it here on YouTube.

New video: How does identity play out in surprises? The example of Osama bin Laden

In this video about our book “Constructing Cassandra”, we explain how identity plays out in strategic surprises, using the example of Osama bin Laden. Watch it here on YouTube.

New video: Is the Cuban Missile Crisis a success story for the CIA?

In this video about Constructing Cassandra, we explain why the Cuban Missile Crisis is both a success and a failure for the CIA. Watch it here on YouTube.