Category Archives: Our work featured

Brace yourselves for the next banking crash — it’s coming soon

Time to address the culture, Tim

Read our latest piece on Forbes here.

In it, we argue that bank crashes are not random accident or bad luck, but that they are systemic. They are the result of a banking culture. Unless this culture is changed, crashes will continue.

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Milo Jones to talk at the upcoming Institutional Investor Conference on unpredictable issues

Milo will be talking at the upcoming Family Office Wealth Conference on Predictable Unpredictability. The conference is organized by the Institutional Investor Forums. “Predictable Unpredictability: Issues, Options, Views and Roadmaps for Affluent Families”, will bring together representatives from some of the nation’s wealthiest families to explore the latest trends and issues related to managing family assets. It will take place on September 12-14, 2012, at the Montage Resort & Spa, Laguna Beach, CA.

Milo will argue that what appears in the news media, as well as what much of what is reported about the macroeconomic scene, represents the “weather” of business: transient or cyclical phenomena that strategists can safely ignore. The “climate” of business, recurring patterns of activity to deep systemic factors, is geopolitical and to a far greater degree determines the ability to create value over the long-term. Milo will outline how families with the assumed knowledge of current events and common business strategies can harness a diverse range of disciplines, especially methods of basic intelligence analysis, to become better informed about the world and the forces at play in the 21st Century that will have a continuing impact on business and business formation.

More information on the conference here.  For regular updates, why not subscribe to our blog?

That’s All Folks: Why the Writing Is on the Wall at Microsoft

Read our latest piece on Forbes here. Our previous piece was on how the lack of diversity can cripple your company. Read it here.

For regular updates, why not subscribe to our blog?

A control expert preparing for the eventual collapse.

Workshop on ACH – Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Milo and I organize a workshop on Tuesday, May 29 on ACH (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses). ACH is a tool originally developed by Richards Heuer at the CIA to analyze complex and uncertain situations. It is widely used in intelligence and international politics, but Milo and I think it applies equally well to business for strategic decision making. ACH uses a deceptively simple framework to use ideas from the scientific method, cognitive psychology and decision analysis to overcome a common but immensely important bias:  the fact that we tend to perceive what we expect to perceive rather than what actually exists.

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I will be a host on the Financial Time’s “Ask the Expert: Entrepreneurship 2012” today at 2:00PM GMT

I will be a host on the Financial Time’s “Ask the Expert: Entrepreneurship 2012” today at 2:00PM GMT.

If you want to know what business can learn from entrepreneurs in the management of uncertainty, post your question now!

More info on the FT’s Web site here.

Lack of diversity paralyzed the CIA. It can cripple your organization, too

Read our guest post on Forbes here.

The most recent Forbes piece is about the coming demise of Microsoft. Read it here.