Author Archives: Philippe Silberzahn

Our new Forbes piece: Three Practical Reasons To Insist On Forecasts Without Numbers

Our new Forbes piece is in praise of poets and gives you three practical reasons to insist on, yes, qualitative forecasting when considering the future. Read it here.

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Our new Forbes piece: Avoid Nasty Surprises: Three Models To Integrate Country Behavior To Your Strategy

Our latest post on Forbes is a reflection on the limits of explaining state behavior with reason and rationality. An obsession with finding rational explanations – however far-fetched – for a state’s actions may lead us to ignore important emotional motivations, and result in miscalculation or outright surprise. Read our piece here.

 

Our new Forbes piece: Chess, Centaurs and Your Future as an Investor in An Age of Machine Intelligence

Our new Forbes article is a reflection on the impact of artificial intelligence and machine reading on investing. Machine reading and artificial intelligence is becoming a fact of life in finance. As an investor, will you be a victim or will you take advantage of it? The article is available here.

 

Our new Forbes piece: Are You Near Your Altamont Moment? How Catastrophic Surprises Transform Business Identities

Our latest post on Forbes is a reflection on the role of catastrophic events in the transformation of people and organizations’ identities, based on the example of the ill-fated Rolling Stones’ Altamont festival in 1969. It is available here.

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Our new Forbes Piece: 1962, The U2, and You: A Risk Management Lesson from the Cold War

Our new Forbes piece shows that by looking at the origins of the Cuban Missile Crisis, one can learn valuable lessons on Risk management. Read it here.

The MOOC Disruption is Only Beginning. What I Learned Creating my First MOOC

Milo and I have already discussed sources of disruption in this blog (see for instance Milo’s Start with Geostrategy, or call it Tactics), and we’ve particularly discussed the role of technology as a  source of disruption. But it is one thing is to describe disruption, and another to experience it.  In that context, I created and ran a MOOC (an online course) on entrepreneurship last November, and thought I’d share the results of this effort for two reasons. First, because MOOCs are poised to disrupt education and second, because there’s been some controversy about them. So let’s go through my experience and see what it tells us.

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New video: Did the CIA fail to anticipate the fall of the USSR?

In this video about Constructing Cassandra, we explain how the CIA failed to anticipate the fall of the USSR. Watch it here on YouTube.