Author Archives: Philippe Silberzahn

New video: Did the CIA fail to anticipate the fall of the USSR?

In this video about Constructing Cassandra, we explain how the CIA failed to anticipate the fall of the USSR. Watch it here on YouTube.

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New video: How does identity play out in surprises? The example of Osama bin Laden

In this video about our book “Constructing Cassandra”, we explain how identity plays out in strategic surprises, using the example of Osama bin Laden. Watch it here on YouTube.

New video: Is the Cuban Missile Crisis a success story for the CIA?

In this video about Constructing Cassandra, we explain why the Cuban Missile Crisis is both a success and a failure for the CIA. Watch it here on YouTube.

New video: What is a Cassandra and why it matters?

In this short video, we explain what a Cassandra is and why identifying Cassandras matter when studying strategic surprises. Watch it here on YouTube.

Constructing Cassandra is here, fresh out of the press!

ConstructingCassandra-book

Our new Forbes piece: Snowden and the Challenge of Intelligence: The Practical Case Against the NSA’s Big Data

Our latest Forbes piece discusses why the NSA’s PRISM surveillance program poses more than a moral problem. In fact, we argue that more data will not make America safer. Read it here.

Risk, Uncertainty and Black Swans: Theoretical Differences and Practical Implications

Every time Milo and I teach about how organizations can make sense of their environments, we are confronted with the difficulty of explaining why uncertainty is so different from risk and why understanding that difference matters to entrepreneurs and managers. In this article, we address those questions and discuss the practical implications that flow from them.

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