Author Archives: Philippe Silberzahn

Our new Forbes piece: Three reasons why Big Data doesn’t make you smarter — Lessons from the world of Intelligence

Our latest post on Forbes piece discusses why Big Data will not make you smarter and potentially can be dangerous. Read it here.

Advertisements

Meet us next week at SCIP in Orlando to talk about intelligence failure

We will be presenting our upcoming book, “Constructing Cassandra: Reframing intelligence failure at the CIA, 1947-2001” at the 28th Annual Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP) International Conference & Exhibition in Orlando (FL), USA. The conference runs from May 6th to 9th.

Continue reading

Our new Forbes piece: Play it Like Steve Jobs-Three Questions for Business Leaders to Ask When Surprise Hits

Our latest post on Forbes proposes a simple framework for leaders to apply when confronted with a strategic surprise-That 3am call… In short, don’t rush into action, no matter how urgent things seem to be! Read the post here.

Previous Forbes pieces:

Analysis Paralysis: the Intelligence-Policy Divide, Revisited

The National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030 was released earlier this year (you can find it here).  In that context, it is worth mentioning an important point that Wikistrat‘s Thomas P.M. Barnett made earlier about previous NIC’s forecasts in his 2005 book, The Pentagon’s New Map.  Barnett’s key point in the book for our purposes is that the US Intelligence Community believes that it must only do analysis, and never engage in “advocacy” of any particular policy.  This epistemologically naive point of departure poses a number of problems.

Continue reading

Our new Forbes piece: Lady Gaga World President by 2030? Why the forecasters so often get it wrong

Our latest post on Forbes is a reflection on the limits of forecasting after the publication of the National intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030 report is available here. In short, don’t predict, construct.

Previous Forbes pieces:

 

The Four Drivers of Geostrategy : 1) Demographic change

In a previous post, Milo argued that strategic thinking should begin at the level of Geostrategy (See Start with Geostrategy or call it tactics). Geostrategy looks at how geopolitical factors inform, constrain, and affect business over the long term.  For convenience, you can place these geopolitical drivers into four categories that interact, evolve and change over time:  Demographics, Geography, Technology, and Culture.  It is “climate change” at the level of these geopolitical drivers– and especially the interaction among them – that create the economic and political “weather” of your firm.  These are often same forces that fund managers harness to generate “alpha” for their funds.  It is at their level that true strategy begins.   In this post, we’ll look at the first one, Demographics.

The Foundations of Lasting Strategy

The Foundations of Lasting Strategy

Continue reading

Is Your Company Heading For a Cuban Missile Crisis? Steps to Make Sure Big Data is Working For You, Not Against You

Big data evidence hiding in plain sight

The rise of big data – the ability to gather massive amounts of information about both environment and operations – rests on the assumption that having more data gives organizations better control and the ability to avoid nasty surprises. It doesn’t. To understand why, consider the Cuba missile crisis that started exactly 50 years ago today.

Read more on our latest Forbes piece here.

For regular updates, why not subscribe to our blog?